Order type production enterprise four months of production should be used to predict the future what-CodePudding

As title, if a business is according to the order to production, production scheduling general during the month when the order is to the second and third and the fourth months to production, I first involved in the field, made a Holtwinters prediction model, predict some prospective some no, one of the most important thing is, exponential smoothing method is just to do according to the historical trend forecast, and I change also follow orders, production in the condition of known my order forecast, how can I combine orders and historical trends to predict the future production?

PS: I try too many yuan to return, but for this order into production to fall 1-65 months in the future order sequence, and the return of production relationship is very weak, (I had the cointegration relationship between inspection and found the reference of R ^ 2 value of 0.05, visible reference value is low,)

CodePudding user response:

Order to predict the known, the future of the production is not sure?
Do next is according to the production schedule!

CodePudding user response:

reference 1st floor erp9009 response:

order forecast is known, the future of the production is not sure?
Do next is according to the production schedule!

Oh sorry some problems before thinking logic, now found that I now mainly want to predict the future months factory production, to guide the factory whether to increase capacity, supplier reference for planning, such as in the existing order forecast, and the product production cycle, production scheduling logic, on the basis of with what method can accurate calculation in the future order different cycle of product respectively how a small amount of land on which month? then the quantity of each order in a month accumulative process output is expected this month, the feeling is not a prediction category again,,, the main method still don't know, also have no case, that I have been in this dead end, with the way I can directly search data to study the==

CodePudding user response:

refer to the second floor yanxi_smallbai response:

Quote: refer to 1st floor erp9009 response:

Order to predict the known, the future of the production is not sure?
Do next is according to the production schedule!

Oh sorry some problems before thinking logic, now found that I now mainly want to predict the future months factory production, to guide the factory whether to increase capacity, supplier reference for planning, such as in the existing order forecast, and the product production cycle, production scheduling logic, on the basis of with what method can accurate calculation in the future order different cycle of product respectively how a small amount of land on which month? then the quantity of each order in a month accumulative process output is expected this month, the feeling is not a prediction category again,,, the main method still don't know, also have no case, that I have been in this dead end, with the way I can directly search data to study the==

Based on the current equipment capacity, production scheduling, or the problem is not according to the production schedule? Production scheduling is a complex problem.

CodePudding user response:

reference erp9009 reply: 3/f

Quote: refer to the second floor yanxi_smallbai response:

Quote: refer to 1st floor erp9009 response:

Order to predict the known, the future of the production is not sure?
Do next is according to the production schedule!

Oh sorry some problems before thinking logic, now found that I now mainly want to predict the future months factory production, to guide the factory whether to increase capacity, supplier reference for planning, such as in the existing order forecast, and the product production cycle, production scheduling logic, on the basis of with what method can accurate calculation in the future order different cycle of product respectively how a small amount of land on which month? then the quantity of each order in a month accumulative process output is expected this month, the feeling is not a prediction category again,,, the main method still don't know, also have no case, that I have been in this dead end, with the way I can directly search data to study the==

Based on the current equipment capacity, production scheduling, or the problem is not according to the production schedule? Production scheduling is a complex problem.

Thank you brother pay attention to my question ~ well, production scheduling is a specific business, I need here is a accurate estimation on the level of data, not how I want to receive your order schedule, how many, but estimated future six months or a year, how many orders will be converted into production (is actually an order forecast + production schedule, accurate to a few like this every month), in the production line to produce calculation can only find a rule? Don't know now what method or case for this aspect of the calculation, because the positive side, the production scheduling is the complex and some random logic,,,