https://v.qq.com/x/page/p0649wsltlk.html
He Baohong
(China academy of information communication, director of the institute time computing and big data)
He Baohong, computer majored, engaged in research on the Internet for more than 20 years, in block chain concept heat of the moment, but He Baohong look on coldly, he said, "we have been will overestimate the short-term effects of a technology, and underestimate the long-term impact of a technology," he himself for technical, social, business, some thinking was recorded in his own WeChat "what thinking" in the public, to read often is suddenly enlighted, sobering,
1 why do block chain become centralized?
Block chain now Shouting is characterized by decentralization, anonymity, equivalence, this technology is also endowed with strong moral colour, no one will come out large-scale publicity, said I this technology is centralized, hierarchical,
This, of course, want to go to the pursuit of ideal, but the reality of business will tell you, in the pursuit of the ideal at the same time, you must respect the reality, so that it can produce several commercial center, there are several calculate force center, there are a few code center, etc., so the last will inevitably be drawn back to reality,
Chanting the Internet is to center, dominated by giant now we see the Internet? We say that the Internet is anonymous, we see the Internet is more and more to the real name? The Internet is out of control can't stop, we become more and more found or can be controlled?
No commercial power drive, the technology is difficult to forward development, idealists only to devise a framework of the prototype that really push it to the ground, change the world needed a commercial power, any technology, if there is no commercial applications, no commercial value, it will disappear soon, so you have to choose this road, you want to develop technology must be combined with business, or technical die faster,
Technology must ultimately out of the lab and in the service of our human society, our human society is a commercial society, is a need to regulate society, this society is not only a technology, technology must be take care of the interests of other industries,
2 why block chain ground application takes a long time?
Is that we the past ten years, we have a lot of new technology, can let a person feel too many things to see, but any also waves of technology innovation, technology innovation dense produced, there will be a period of time and then a period of time will be depressed for a period of time, there are two reasons, first is any technological innovation, it needs some more at the bottom of the technology or the development of other scientific support, the rapid growth of impossible, the second after 10 years development, we have a lot of new technology, but the whole social acceptance and application of these new technologies, need time to digest these techniques, equivalent to technology of steps must also be a bit slow, waiting for the whole society, to better use such as cloud computing put forward more than a decade, but the actual application rate is not high, which means the society as a whole use it needs a process, like the Internet took 20 years to popularization, cloud computing for 10 years is not popular, just said is widely accepted, use the ubiquitous cloud computing, have to at least 10 years, what's more, just a block chain, it need time, needs a process,
3 why discussion notes has more people now?
Any new technology, the first reaction, often be some speculators, it is indisputable fact, but with the enhancing of its cognitive ability, will be more and more stable, and the society as a whole will guide the application block chain and so on for more valuable, not just do speculative, but often new technology as easy to appear the phenomenon of speculation, it is also often happen, because of regulatory not have time to react, but I'm sure I will react, and soon,
4 block chain bubble will continue how long?
Every technology after frenzied speculation, said it would upset the world, will be crazy to expand the scope of technology, then walked to the top, after about 5 or 6 years of time, you will find that the technology is not so good, a few years ago said didn't say so strong, such as the big data, stir fry a few years ago now suddenly discovered that, how big data can be used to kill cooked?
The blow not honor those cows there seems to be a part of, not only not to cash, also some negative problems, so technology hype peak began to fall, and this time, I would give it up, you must set up the confidence, it will come back, it will bounce back, and then everyone began to care less about a few years ago some of the hot technology, and then over the years, suddenly discovered that its use is very wide, go on to the Internet, we probably hype all the way from the Internet business started in 1994 to 2000 to 2001, the bubble burst, and then a lot of people on the Internet, over the years quietly again, technology has always been such waves,
We always overestimate the short-term effects of technology, and underestimate the long-term impact of technology, again and again, round and round, generation after generation,
